Fentanyl trafficking is no longer the Trump administration’s primary motivation for taking action against Mexican drug cartels and their influence.
The CIA presented a report that left the U.S. government deeply concerned: Mexico could be engulfed in a narco-civil war so deadly and violent that it would dwarf even the bloodiest conflicts of its kind in sub-Saharan Africa.
It wouldn’t be a simple territorial dispute like the one currently unfolding. The United States would have a gigantic Sierra Leone as its neighbor, with a kind of “Gaza Strip” stretching 2,000 miles along its southern border.
Yes. Among several possible scenarios, US intelligence concluded that—if the symbiosis between the Obrador administration’s political power and organized crime continues—within no more than 10 years, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel will achieve such military and economic power that in vast swathes of Mexico they will have completely replaced the Mexican state, becoming entities as dangerous as the Islamic State.
The danger lies in the fact that MORENA seized power by negotiating with rival cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG. Furthermore, there is clear evidence that state governments have pacts with other cartels in southern states, such as Guerrero with Los Rojos and Los Ardillos; Michoacán and the State of Mexico with La Familia Michoacana; and Tamaulipas with the Gulf Cartel, to name just a few.
Apparently, the Morena party focused solely on establishing relationships with various organized crime groups without considering the logical consequences of these actions.
This scenario is extremely dangerous, as it is breaking the delicate balance between the pseudo-state, the major criminal organizations, and the smaller cartels. This is unleashing an armed conflict within Mexico that is escalating into a humanitarian, geopolitical, and economic crisis of enormous proportions, and which will inevitably trigger one of the worst security crises and conflicts the world has seen since the Balkan Wars.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security estimated that the conflict will unleash a severe refugee crisis, mobilizing at least 45 million Mexicans attempting to enter the United States. In addition, at least another 18 million would flee to Spain, Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador, Panama, Chile, Australia, and numerous other countries that do not require visas for Mexicans.
To make matters worse, the 40 million Mexicans residing in the United States, supported by American and foreign political and social sectors, would demand the border be opened to refugees, plunging the United States into a delicate situation, regardless of whether they accept them or not. The Republican and Democratic parties would adopt completely opposing positions, fueling polarization among American citizens with adverse effects on the electorate.
The economic damage would be significant. The world’s twelfth largest economy and Uncle Sam’s main trading partner, mired in a hell of narco-terrorist paramilitary guerrillas, would severely compromise the American economy. The Tequila Effect would spread to Canada, Latin America, important countries of the European Union, and even affect the Asia-Pacific region.
The response of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government to the Rocha Moya scandal dispelled any remaining doubts: Mexico is a narco-state, plain and simple.
Should the described scenario unfold, the Mexican state would be utterly incapable of controlling the situation. The Mexican Army would be so corrupted that it would act as a mere armed wing of the cartels. It would be highly unlikely to stage a coup to reverse the situation.
The United Nations would have no choice but to authorize a military intervention in Mexico through an international coalition led by the United States. Trump, under no circumstances, wants a full-scale war with its southern neighbor; in which case he would have to take charge, a situation that China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea would exploit to attempt a strategic blow against US interests.
In short, if the United States allows the cartels to continue expanding their power to unprecedented levels—encouraged by the impunity guaranteed by the Mexican narco-populist regime—the consequences could be catastrophic.
By Raul León for Post Group Mexico
